Stellantis likely heading to $9 billion strike with UAW new head. Bad news for UAW: Stellantis cash

[AlexB]

United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain promised union members he’d do things differently during contract talks with the Detroit automakers this year. Thus far, he has delivered.

Fain has propelled the UAW into the national spotlight with politically savvy strategies, resonant social media messaging and confidence that the embattled union can ride a national wave of support for organized labor to win a “war” against “corporate greed” and multibillion-dollar corporations General Motors, Ford Motor and Stellantis.

“This is our defining moment, as a union as working people. And we’re taking a different approach every step of the way,” Fain said Tuesday night during a Facebook Live event with members.

The consensus among past bargainers and several people involved with prior negotiations is that this year’s bargaining, which formally kicks off Wednesday, will be “different.”

It will also be “confrontational,” “costly,” “critical,” “unprecedented” and a “s---show,” some said.

The negotiations feature new top bargainers on nearly all sides attempting to prove themselves, a belief among union membership that concessions are not an option, and significant concerns about the industry’s transition to electric vehicles eliminating jobs and deteriorating wages.
Many expect Jeep-parent Stellantis, formerly Fiat Chrysler, to be the leading company in the talks, after an Illinois assembly plant was idled indefinitely for potential closure in February. Fain and several newly elected UAW leaders also rose through the ranks of the union through Stellantis.

Members of the union who work for Stellantis also are among the most outspoken and unhappy. Stellantis was at the center of a multiyear federal investigation into the UAW that led to 18 convictions, including two ex-union presidents, and ongoing government oversight of the labor organization.
Fain has been steadfast in the reinstatement of COLA as a top issue for the union during this round of negotiations in addition to increased wages, retention of a platinum health-care package and the end of a grow-in, or tiered, pay system.

“The United Auto workers are ready to get back into the fight against corruption, against concessions, against tiers,” Fain said during a UAW bargaining convention shortly after becoming president. “The UAW is ready to get back into the fight for good jobs, for economic justice, for our families and for our communities.”

Under the current pay structure, UAW members start at about $18 an hour and have a “grow-in” period of four years to reach a top wage of more than $30 an hour.

Following the last UAW-Detroit automaker negotiations in 2019, the Center for Automotive Research forecast average hourly labor costswould increase $11 per worker for Stellantis and $8 per worker at GM and Ford through the current contracts, which expire in September. Those hikes increase labor costs for the automaker to $66 per hour for Stellantis, $69 for Ford and $71 for GM, CAR said.

Wage hikes in this year’s negotiations could mean further labor cost increases for the Detroit automakers of between 25% and 30% over the next four years, according to BofA’s Murphy, based on recent UAW negotiations with companies outside the auto sector such as Deere & Co., Caterpillar and CNH.

In addition to pay, benefits and bonuses, the union also has the auto industry’s transition to EVs in its sights. Fain has called for a “just transition” for workers, as the government uses taxpayer money to subsidize the EV industry.

A 2018 study by the union found mass adoption of EVs could cost the UAW 35,000 jobs, however the union has more recently said that number could be less.

Auto industry braces for contentious contract talks as UAW formally kicks off bargaining

UAW president has vowed to be aggressive in bargaining with General Motors, Ford Motor and Stellantis for new worker contracts.

www.cnbc.com

Problem for UAW is Stellantis has the most money with $49,175 billion of cash (https://www.investing.com/equities/fiat-balance-sheet)and the most favorable UAW contact.
UAW strike wouldn't hurt Stelllantis until the one month mark were given past financial record a reversal in working capital would occur to the tune approximately $4 billion.

After that, I assuming Stellantis will be developing product spending higher than the Covid-19 lockdowns, the last thing closest to a strike. If the assumption is correct, strike will cost Stellantis North America about $50 million per day starting the 30 day mark of a strike which is less than GM. Given Stellantis would spend $2 billion both settle a strike & restart production, I got a ballpark of $9 billion if strike last to middle of December.

Why December? UAW members would be going on nearly a quarter without getting paid, into the Holiday season that has gifts/travel/seasonal food/toys/socializing,etc that are painful without getting paid.

On top of this, an unfortunate reality many UAW Member households live paycheck-to-paycheck,and John Elkann's management teams have history of walking out of negotiations if conditions are not right(these UAW talks should be no exception).

My expectations is Stellantis will be in no hurry for deal, and the Holiday's will pressure the wild & crazy new UAW leader to cave on crazy COLA return idea+ retirees pay increase.

Stellantis will offer higher wages across the board for current workers, special contact signing payment, annual CPI adjustment (NO FOOD & ENERGY COST) instead COLA ("L"= Living = FOOD & ENERGY).

Stellantis will get Carlos's productivity concepts, keep the Bankruptcy work rules, but will agree to quicker progression of the wage scale including for Temporary hires.

 

[AlexB]

Surprise at the lack of comments given the lunatic running the UAW.

Like I stated come December, UAW will forget about COLA+ other insanity, and agree to improvements in AWOL absenteeism+Carlos's productivity concepts+retain Bankruptcy Work Rules in exchange for higher pay+quicker progression.

 

[abshiregabrielle]

Auto industry braces for contentious contract talks as UAW formally kicks off bargaining

UAW president has vowed to be aggressive in bargaining with General Motors, Ford Motor and Stellantis for new worker contracts.

www.cnbc.com

Problem for UAW is Stellantis has the most money with $49,175 billion of cash (https://www.investing.com/equities/fiat-balance-sheet)and the most favorable UAW contact.
UAW strike wouldn't hurt Stelllantis until the one month mark were given past financial record a reversal in working capital would occur to the tune approximately $4 billion.

After that, I assuming Stellantis will be developing product spending higher than the Covid-19 lockdowns, the last thing closest to a strike. If the assumption is correct, strike will cost Stellantis North America about $50 million per day starting the 30 day mark of a strike which is less than GM. Given Stellantis would spend $2 billion both settle a strike & restart production, I got a ballpark of $9 billion if strike last to middle of December.

Why December? UAW members would be going on nearly a quarter without getting paid, into the Holiday season that has gifts/travel/seasonal food/toys/socializing,etc that are painful without getting paid.

On top of this, an unfortunate reality many UAW Member households live paycheck-to-paycheck,and John Elkann's management teams have history of walking out of negotiations if conditions are not right(these UAW talks should be no exception).

My expectations is Stellantis will be in no hurry for deal, and the Holiday's will pressure the wild & crazy new UAW leader to cave on crazy COLA return idea+ retirees pay increase.

Stellantis will offer higher wages across the board for current workers, special contact signing payment, annual CPI adjustment (NO FOOD & ENERGY COST) instead COLA ("L"= Living = FOOD & ENERGY).
basketball stars
Stellantis will get Carlos's productivity concepts, keep the Bankruptcy work rules, but will agree to quicker progression of the wage scale including for Temporary hires.

As previously stated, in December, UAW will prioritize improving AWOL absenteeism, Carlos's productivity principles, and the Bankruptcy Work Rules over COLA and other irrelevant matters. In exchange, UAW will receive higher salary and expedited progress.