Death of ICE in U.S. by 2031... Coming November 2020...prescription: a Stellantis-GM Merger

[Ryan]

Just to throw this into the mix as well - Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement

 

[Ryan]

I think Electric has a lots of advantages especially around simplicity of drivetrain. But it should be market driven.

We can agree on that. I'm on board with regulations that will require emissions reductions in the interim, though.

But as a car enthusiast, I think that there are enough benefits to EVs so that once the range and number of charging stations increase beyond a certain point, they will be seen as clearly superior to ICE vehicles. Demand should naturally dramatically increase, at that point.

 

[AlexB]

One nice thing about Stellantis-GM is the rural reach of the Dealer network, basic incentivize the network to build EV charging stations, and create a business case that traffic charging stations will get becomes a good source of revenue.

 

[TripleT]

Just to throw this into the mix as well - Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement

Just so you are aware CO2 is a trace green house gas. This is per the UN intergovernmental panel on Climate change or IPCC. So what that means is Water is 95% of GHGs, 97% of CO2 is natural. Man-made CO2 is close to .12%. Proposition that tiny contribution in face of large natural fluctuation is “utterly irresponsible” FYI USA accounts for 28% of CO2. So our number is .0336%.....

In these large system the scale has to be kept in mind. The only way to make CO2 a substantial environmental issue is to remove water vapor and CO2 related to ocean exchange. We humans have a elevate sense of our power when confronted size scope of the Natural inputs. The Sun dynamic state, cosmic radiation, the tilt earth, the rotation around the sun. Spending billions on this is the equivalent of a rain dance, or Nazca people drawing figures in the sand. Outlawing the ICE will have zero if not a negative environmental impact.

There are true environmental issues related to mining and deforestation... Clean water… third world countries dumping trash directly into the ocean. The concentration on CO2... the literal food of life.... and our tiny fractional contribution.... Is misguided at best, a waste of resources for real issue at least, and excuse for control and collectivism at it worst.

 

[Deckard Cain]

Well, I'm in the polar opposite of TripleT. If anything, the past few years have shown me that waiting for changes to occur because they're "market-driven" does not produce the desired outcome.
Maybe it's my perspective as an european social democrat.
Market-driven changes in the auto-sector never occur in the right direction without heavy pressure from regulators. This is like this since the push for seat-belts started, crash-testing, electronic aides, the enforcement of emissions rules, etc. I simply don't trust multi-billion dollar corporations with the financial muscle to crush or outright buy new competitors to do anything else than maintain the status-quo where they are kings. Example: Dieselgate. So spare me with the "market driven" argument.

Corporations should not define the rules of the markets. Governments/supra-national entities like the EU should. They ARE the market. They define regulations. Thus, these changes are defined by the gatekeepers of the market and corporations must abide by them. I don't want to live in an oligarchy. For that I would've done what I could to stay in the US when I lived there.

As for renewable energies, just by coincidence the American Wind Energy Association just released the report of wind power installations in the US on 2Q 2020. The first 6 months of 202 were the best ever first semester in installed capacity ever, even with an ongoing pandemic. And this is in the country with the most hostile Administration towards renewable energies.

 

[Deckard Cain]

If you guys want more food for thought.

Renewables achieve 57.1% of new US generating capacity

Renewable energy sources now account for 23.04% of the nation’s total available installed generating capacity and continue to expand their lead over coal (20.19%). The generating capacity of just wind and solar is now at 13.08% of the nation’s total … and that does not include distributed (e.g., rooftop) solar.

Five years ago, FERC reported that total installed renewable energy generating capacity was 17.27% of the nation's total with wind at 5.84% (now 9.13%) and solar at 1.08% (now 3.95 %). Thus, over the past half-decade, wind's share of the nation's generating capacity has expanded by nearly 60% while that of solar is now almost four times greater.

By comparison, in June 2015, coal's share was 26.83% (now 20.19%), nuclear was 9.20%(now 8.68%), and oil was 3.87% (now 3.29%). Only natural gas has shown any growth among non-renewable sources - expanding modestly from a 42.66% share five years ago to 44.63% today.

In addition, FERC data suggest that renewables’ share of generating capacity is on track to increase significantly over the next three years (i.e., by June 2023). ‘High probability’ generation capacity additions for wind, minus anticipated retirements, reflect a projected net increase of 27,226 MW while solar is foreseen growing by 26,748 MW. By comparison, net growth for natural gas will be only 19,897 MW. Thus, wind and solar are forecast to each provide at least a third more new generating capacity than natural gas over the next three years.

(...)

In total, the mix of all renewables will add more than 56.3 GW of net new generating capacity to the nation’s total by June 2023 while the net new capacity projected to be added by natural gas, coal, oil, and nuclear power combined will actually drop by 6.9 GW.

 

[Rustydodge]

If you guys want more food for thought.

Renewables achieve 57.1% of new US generating capacity

It makes sense, because renewable type generating capacities are basically the primary type being allowed to be created/installed currently, probably still through subsidies? Don't know, not my area of expertise.

Note it's 57% of NEW capacity set up in the first 6 months of the year. Renewable is still under 1/4 of the nations generating source per the article. I'm sure it will continue to grow.

 

[Rustydodge]

I never said progress should stop... I said it should be organic. Not forced by a ignorant bureaucrats. Rare earth elements are what they are called. Just like fossil fuels are call wrongly when are pretty darn sure there were no fossils on Titan.... But to supply enough to replace ICE would be devastating to earth, for those who actually care about the earth. I know that the trace of a trace green house gas is not a measurable effect on the climate...… REAL DAMAGE real poisoning.

As for the expansion of energy under, Green New Deal, it would end. Especially Natural Gas. Renewables don't put a dent in the problem and that even if they were more than energy neutral.


California is having rolling blackouts now. Out west there a vast expanses that take full tanks. The scope and scale of the USA is hard to imagine for Costal people let alone people in Europe. Its not just powerplants, it the cable, it is the powerline, it the systems to control it, it rest stops that a made to handle 10 min tops. There is no train to jump on here to get to place to place.

Its not just travel ... it construction and agriculture. Most of America is rural. There is no public transport.

Eventually Electric will replace the ICE as is develop on it own. It doesn't need the desire to control people movement and energy use by Collectivists as a justification.

We had a few foreign exchange students from Europe stay with us when i was growing up. It was always funny when they asked to go see different national parks or monuments...they were very surprised when we answered "Well we'd have to drive 14 hours to get there..."

None understood the vastness of this country initially.

 

[AlexB]

@Ryan
@Bili
@Deckard Cain
@TripleT

In the original post I mention the role of Stellantis-GM selling the GMC brand to Honda for Antitrust approval.....well Honda will be a phone/skype call away....

General Motors (GM.N) and Honda Motor Co (7267.T) have teamed up to make a range of vehicles in North America, deepening their ties as carmakers come under pressure to share technology and costs to meet demands for cleaner vehicles.

Under the alliance, Honda and GM intend to share common vehicle platforms, including electrified and internal combustion propulsion systems, the U.S. carmaker said on Thursday.

Talks to plan co-development will begin immediately, with engineering work starting in early 2021, GM said.

 

[cgseller]

One nice thing about Stellantis-GM is the rural reach of the Dealer network, basic incentivize the network to build EV charging stations, and create a business case that traffic charging stations will get becomes a good source of revenue.

OMG - why has no one done this yet. Dealers should become value added network instead of VAR sales channels. Tesla has to negotiate the relationships for PoPs, but the traditional mfgs already have footprints. Granted, you need way more than the dealer lots but it is a start.... I can buy my vehicle straight from the MFG - but if I want extras, addons, or value add, visit the local ...need a new name for them than dealer now....