Some thoughts...
Only six models sold more than 30,000 units in Q1:
Grand Cherokee 48,463
Ram LD 47,067
Wrangler 37,961
Pacifica 32,409
Ram HD 31,781
Compass 31,730
Nothing else hit even 15,000 units. The entire Dodge brand sold only 21,731.
The top 3 sellers are perennial best-sellers and fortunately produced in the US. All 3 declined in sales, GC and 1500 by 11% each, and Wrangler by 1%.
The next three are aging models imported from Mexico and Canada, and two of them are due for replacement in the next 1-3 years. Compass sales grew by 15%(!), Pacifica declined by 2% (although Voyager sales more than made up for it), and Ram HD sales declined by about 12%.
Considering the imminent commencement of the coming trade war and the disappointing Q1 sales, I think the next couple of years are going to be very bleak for the CDJR brands, unless there is a quick and drastic change in US trade policy.
I suspect the Recon has already been canceled, or will be significantly delayed while alternate production sites and drivetrain options are considered.
The Wagoneer S and Charger will likely become even more overpriced and assembly at Windsor and Toluca could slow to a trickle. Investments in new models will likely slow or stop as revenues dry up and resources are allocated to retooling US plants. Development of any further versions of the Wagoneer S and Charger beyond the Limited and Six Pack models, respectively, will likely freeze.
Retooling efforts have been paused at Brampton and I do not expect them to resume-- ever. Compass sales out of Toluca will collapse as prices rise, and Jeep will have to decide if it will make the most financial sense to continue to sell the old Compass out of Mexico, import the new Compass from Italy like they did with the Renegade, or discontinue the Compass in the US altogether. Maybe they can get a STLA Medium plant set up in the US in the next couple of years and bring the new Compass to market then.
The tariffs may be the final nail in the Hornet's coffin, and Charger sales will continue to be dismal at least until they can produce more affordable versions in the US. Dodge's best hope may be the new Durango coming out of Detroit, assuming it is still on track to be released next year. And even the Durango is unlikely to sell many more than 50,000 units a year.
The Chrysler brand may not survive. While CEO Christine Feull recently spoke of three new models in development (new Pacifica, CUV, sedan), I'll be surprised if any of them ever make it to production. Pacifica sales will dry up once the tariffs hit, and if/when they find a way to produce the Charger in the US, Windsor may also be shuttered, permanently, and with it, Chrysler.
I also would not hold my breath waiting for a $25K Renegade EV to be imported to the US in this, the darkest timeline.
I would be surprised if the new Cherokee is not also delayed until it can be assembled in the US. Belvidere is the most likely production site but is supposedly not going to restart production for two years. Maybe they can speed up the timeline but US production of the Cherokee (or Charger, Compass, or Pacifica for that matter) is likely at least a year away.
I expect that all surviving future model introductions, including the Ram and Wagoneer EREVs, will be delayed.
I have no idea what will happen to the Ram ProMaster. Maybe it can survive the impending price increases. Maybe Saltillo can build more vans for export to other countries besides the US.
How long after the tariffs hit will it become unprofitable to import Fiats and Alfa Romeos into the US?
One bright spot is that Ram HD production can likely be added to Sterling Heights and/or Warren Truck relatively quickly. Grand Cherokee, Wrangler, and Gladiator will be produced for as long as the company can keep the lights on. Wagoneer and Grand Wagoneer will likely soldier on as well despite their dramatic drops in sales. Ram needs to get those value models of the 1500 out ASAP.
Just for clarity, I'm not hoping that any of these things happen. 2025 could end up being as bad as 2009, or even worse, and FCA US may emerge from it with only two brands: Ram, and a reduced Jeep.
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