Germans (VW) bias & scared? FCA-PSA gets E.U. Antitrust review over Vans/LCV

[AlexB]

FCA and PSA planned for an antitrust review, but still smells of German cheerleader on E.U. Antitrust process given the Fiat/FCA-PSA relationship for vans pre-dates the creation of the European Union structure and they allowed addition of Opel+Vauxhall back in 2017 .

Fiat and PSA, which are seeking to create the world’s fourth-biggest carmaker, were told last week that their combined high market share in small vans was a worry for competition enforcers, other people familiar with the matter had told Reuters.

The companies had until Wednesday to put in concessions but did not do so, the sources said. That will automatically trigger a four-month-long investigation by the European Commission when it completes its preliminary review on June 17.
The EU competition enforcer, Fiat Chrysler and PSA declined to comment.

“It is a huge and complicate deal, we know how things work and so we knew that a full probe was an option. Which by the way would not cause any delay to the time frame we face for the merger,” one of the sources said.
Another source said if EU regulators have any concerns, they should list them. The companies expect to finalise the deal in the first quarter of 2021.

Fiat, PSA face EU antitrust probe over $50 billion merger: sources

Fiat Chrysler <FCHA.MI> and Peugeot maker PSA <PEUP.PA> face a lengthy EU antitrust investigation after declining to offer concessions to allay EU antitrust concerns about their planned $50 billion merger, people familiar with the matter said on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

The same European Union body so far have no complants about VW-Ford foaming a JV for LCV's/Vans:Ford-VW Joint Venture Details Finalized, Here’s What’s Coming

Two years ago, Ford and VW announced they’d explore the possibility of jointly developing vehicles. A year later, they expanded their partnership, and today, the two detail the specifics. Ford will engineer and build a midsize pickup and a one-ton commercial van for the two while VW will develop the smaller city van for the two. The two will also partner on autonomous and electric vehicles. We knew early on that the partnership would focus on commercial vehicles, self-driving cars, and EVs, but today, the details paint a better picture of what to expect.

Ford is currently working on the next-generation Ranger, and it will underpin the next-gen VW Amarok that’ll arrive in 2022. It won’t be the only vehicle released, though. As early as next year, we could see the two commercial vans arrive, too. The smaller city van will be based on the latest VW Caddy model, while the one-ton cargo van is likely a replacement for the Ford Transit. Ford will also build an electric vehicle for Europe using Volkswagen’s electric MEB platform.

Germany bias...

According to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), the two carmakers produced a total of 755,000 light commercial vehicles last year, giving them a potential combined market share of around 34%, the market leader, followed by Renault (RENA.PA) and Ford (F.N) with about a 16% market share each.


Volkswagen had 12% of the market and Daimler 10%.

Exclusive: Fiat, PSA merger hits EU roadblock, may need concessions - sources

Fiat Chrysler's <FCHA.MI> planned $50 billion merger with Peugeot maker PSA <PEUP.PA> has hit a bump after EU regulators voiced concerns about the companies' market share in small vans, indicating concessions may be required, sources said.

www.reuters.com

VW-Ford JV will have 28% marketshare of LCV/Vans vs FCA-PSA 34% marketshare of LCV/Vans....not giant differences in marketshare. But to top all of it the only change up is the integration of parent OEM ownership between FCA-PSA vs the current Joint-Venture,that's not a change in the European marketplace.

Which means the real reason for the E.U. questions is somebody is in the tank for German interest , and VW having a real mass competitor is not the interest of Germany.

 

[Bili]

@AlexB

Most likely that Germans are blocking this merger but not exclude mister Macro who had blocked takover of French companies by Italians in the past. France is still the largest Renault shareholder

Of course we may argue that 50:50 merger is not good for FCA because PSA is basically Europe only company and hasn't been FCA's first choice for the merger.

 

[AlexB]

@AlexB

Most likely that Germans are blocking this merger but not exclude mister Macro who had blocked takover of French companies by Italians in the past. France is still the largest Renault shareholder

Of course we may argue that 50:50 merger is not good for FCA because PSA is basically Europe only company and hasn't been FCA's first choice for the merger.

Often times France make decisions that lack sense,harming PSA which currently the stronger of the two French Automakers would not be wise for French jobs. I think the German cheerleaders get silent as this Antitrust stage is the more discovery phase. I do think John walks away vs any Legal Court fight against E.U.

Even with FCA-PSA Merger completed, I don't believe it will be FCA's last merger deal especially with Carlos getting near 65. I think Carlos retires by completing another deal most likely GM.

 

[Bili]

@AlexB

Who will buy BMW? I'm pretty much sure they will not stay independent or without merger.

I wouldn't touch GM. Not with their underfunded pension funds liabilities both int the US and in the EU. They took liabilities for underfunded European (mostly UK) pension funds on themselves when they sold Opel to PSA. I think it's more than 9 billion euros.

 

[AlexB]

@AlexB

Who will buy BMW? I'm pretty much sure they will not stay independent or without merger.

I wouldn't touch GM. Not with their underfunded pension funds liabilities both int the US and in the EU. They took liabilities for underfunded European (mostly UK) pension funds on themselves when they sold Opel to PSA. I think it's more than 9 billion euros.

Well the problem with BMW is that it comes along with a family...the Quandt family owns 46.7% stake in BMW so outside of a Leverage Buyout of BMW John Elkann would be displaced.
Also the German union (IG Metall) would lose nearly all their governance powers that German Law allows with FCA's Netherlands structure. Same thing with any "un-holy" reunion with Daimler Auto.

Now with GM besides being John & Sergio's favorite would give FCA-PSA strong presence in China giving VW another scare, and even at GM's current skunk size would create an OEM with 12 million-15 million units.

 

[Bili]

@AlexB

IMO GM is not solution for China woes. All non premium (you call it luxury in US) carmakers will fail in China which is already apparent from declining YOY sales for Chevrolet, Ford and Buick. First French had sunk in China, now Americans are going that way. Who is next? Maybe German or German owned brands like VW and Škoda.

Not to mention that marriage with GM may result in antitrust woes in US.

As I've said I see BMW as ideal target for takeover but its value is IMO to big. Partially it's due to more or less safe business for BMW in the past 20 years. They were never in danger of bankruptcy but IMO they are too small to survive alone. And they are all what late Marchionne wanted (and privately drove). Strong premium brand with high sales in China.

 

[sjon]

Well the problem with BMW is that it comes along with a family...the Quandt family owns 46.7% stake in BMW so outside of a Leverage Buyout of BMW John Elkann would be displaced.
Also the German union (IG Metall) would lose nearly all their governance powers that German Law allows with FCA's Netherlands structure. Same thing with any "un-holy" reunion with Daimler Auto.

Now with GM besides being John & Sergio's favorite would give FCA-PSA strong presence in China giving VW another scare, and even at GM's current skunk size would create an OEM with 12 million-15 million units.

I agree with the BMW point you make.
But do you think there is a future for foreign car companies in China?
They seem to be doing well with their own makes, maybe top luxury Ferrari & Co.