RAM kicks major ass; GM's presentation shows it, Silverado nearing 5 months of inventory

[AlexB]

Well, RAM eating more of the pickup pie having take dollar share with the second biggest jump in Average Transaction Prices of any Full-Size Truck on the market and the biggest increase in volume ( the only volume increase in Full-Size trucks for 2019).
RAM volume is up 18% YOY and ATP is up $3,700 YOY . In April , RAM was up 25% :FCA US Reports April 2019 Sales; Quarterly Reporting of Sales to Start In Q3

Meanwhile GM states Sierra ATP is up $4,300, but Sierra volume is down -3.3% (down -6.2 in April)
Silverado on the other end ATP is up $3,000 but volume has crash down -15.9% (down -16.6% in April).
April Truck sales
Here's chart from GM:

https://investor.gm.com/static-files/3a4949f0-a5b9-44d3-be73-522addc64935

GM's latest excuse for Silverado is the lack of single-cab sales, despite Mark Reuss and Mary Barra (the heads of GM) claims of wanting a higher Crew Cab penetration. More single cabs will cut Silverado's ATP and there's the big gut of Silverado supply.

While Sierra's inventory stood at 99 days, Silverado's inventory was 119 days and with even more production and poor sales is on track for 150 days of supply (5 months)GM Inventory Numbers 05-01-2019.
GM's next excuse for Silverado will be the chances of the UAW going on strike and therefore the need for big inventory.

 

[Blown7]

Whats ATP ????

 

[Bili]

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

 

[AlexB]

Time for some RenCen (GM) comedy: Reuss is running his mouth again stating "This is not over. We play for the long term.”
which is totally hilarious :Fiat Chrysler Ram Pickup Is Closing In on GM and Ford

 

[ViperDave]

I have a friend that works for a GM dealer. They are not happy with the new Chev trucks. for one they are ugly and the interiors are super cheap. They are hearing it from there customers. Also some customers actually don't like the looks of them so they either get a Colorado or a different brand.

I have see a few of the new GMC tailgate with huge dents in them. Seems people are dropping them down to the step position I guess and hitting the trailer hitch receiver ball that they left in. not to many people happy about that either.

 

[AlexB]

With Silverado's weakness, I believe this upcoming redsign of the Tundra is Toyota's best ever shot at taking 4th place and surpass Sierra by eating some Silverado marketshare.

 

[DodgeFL]

Before you break out the party goodies consider; Ram inventory 134 DAYS.

Warren Stamping, major Ram body panel supplier, many layoffs till next year. Also offering certain skilled tradesmen $25,000. to retire early.

The whole auto market is soft and may get even worse ??

 

[Blown7]

Before you break out the party goodies consider; Ram inventory 134 DAYS.

Warren Stamping, major Ram body panel supplier, many layoffs till next year. Also offering certain skilled tradesmen $25,000. to retire early.

The whole auto market is soft and may get even worse ??

These are items and issues I haven't heard or seen before....

 

[ViperDave]

One thing I can see is there are only so many people that can afford a 50 yo 60k truck. Pricing is getting stupid expensive.

 

[DodgeFL]

Please watch the real news on You Tube: AMTV, Silver Report, Jeremiah Babe, etc. The auto industry is in trouble world wide.

Jeep Wrangler has a 105 day spply of unsold vehicles also.

 

[Bili]

Jeep Wrangler has a 105 day spply of unsold vehicles also.

Because they will shut down factory for PHEV production preparation.


Warren Stamping? It's producing roofs for Pacifica, Cherokee...

 

[Rustydodge]

I though 100 day supply is about the target?

Ram 100+ days of supply, +22% YTD, trying to grow government and commercial sales with classic, trying to grow retail sales with low price point classic and 5th gen, and switching over to updated HDs.

Q1 ATP was up, incentive spending was down, sales were up.

If the sky is falling i think Ram is in the best position.

 

[devildodge]

One thing I can see is there are only so many people that can afford a 50 yo 60k truck. Pricing is getting stupid expensive.

Yes, dealers have a lot of the dealer inventory is 50 to 70 k trucks that I do not understand how people can justify, even if they can afford it.

I though 100 day supply is about the target?

I agree from the little I know about the truck business
If supply is too much, then they should focus on building the ordered trucks people are desperately waiting on and let the inventory come down.

My industry(railroad) just laid off a pile of people...it has nothing to do with inventory or need...just their latest number they are following. Some shops laid off over 50 guys and then hit the remaining guys with mandatory overtime.

The business world is an fd up place.

 

[DodgeFL]

Unsold vehicles target supply is 55 days. Check out Richmond [ Michigan ] Dodge, Ram, Jeep over flowing inventory as one example. You can put lip stick on a pig but it's still a pig. I'm hoping this settles out ?

 

[devildodge]

A lot of people are also slowed down hoping the 2020 gets some more choices and also waiting for the multifunction tailgate.

And the HD is missing all the pieces for the tow technology group, which has people on hold.

And the people waiting for the regular cab 1500 to no longer be a classic(which got extended) and others who are upset with the HD not getting the new cab.

Also, plenty are cashing in on the deals of the 2018 leftovers, and in reality it will be 3 to 5 years til they buy again.

The thing helping the new market though, is the insane prices for used trucks.

I had to really, really search for a 6 4l HEMI HD for under 20 grand...and I found the only one as I have looked since and they are holding right near 30 grand.

 

[Rustydodge]

Before you break out the party goodies consider; Ram inventory 134 DAYS.

Warren Stamping, major Ram body panel supplier, many layoffs till next year. Also offering certain skilled tradesmen $25,000. to retire early.

The whole auto market is soft and may get even worse ??

Unsold vehicles target supply is 55 days. Check out Richmond [ Michigan ] Dodge, Ram, Jeep over flowing inventory as one example. You can put lip stick on a pig but it's still a pig. I'm hoping this settles out ?

What's better?
To be growing in a soft market
To be flat in a soft market
To be shrinking in a soft market

One of these applies to Ram, one to Ford, one to GM. Please let me know which one to put lipstick on.

Ram is just starting 2nd yr production of a new model, still producing an old model, and is in the midst of new HD switch over. Not surprising for inventory to be where it is at when you're running a brand new plant (SHAP), preparing for updates to an old plant (Warren), about to switch from 2019 to 2020 models, and growing 22% YTD.

If there is a storm coming, Ram is just ahead of it, GM and Ford would be in the midst of it in 2020 with new HDs, and Ford LD coming soon after.

If Ram isn't in the best position currently, please tell me who is in a better one

 

[Jared B]

What's better?
To be growing in a soft market
To be flat in a soft market
To be shrinking in a soft market

One of these applies to Ram, one to Ford, one to GM. Please let me know which one to put lipstick on.

Ram is just starting 2nd yr production of a new model, still producing an old model, and is in the midst of new HD switch over. Not surprising for inventory to be where it is at when you're running a brand new plant (SHAP), preparing for updates to an old plant (Warren), about to switch from 2019 to 2020 models, and growing 22% YTD.

If there is a storm coming, Ram is just ahead of it, GM and Ford would be in the midst of it in 2020 with new HDs, and Ford LD coming soon after.

If Ram isn't in the best position currently, please tell me who is in a better one

I agree with everything you said. Ram market share is up, ATPs (Average transaction prices) are up, the trucks are making a hell of a name for themselves, I don't see how outperforming the market is a bad thing.

As far as the auto industry we know it's going to contract and is softening up, that's one of the reasons FCA is playing the hand that they are.

 

[VoiceOfReason]

Market uncertainty isn't helping things - FCA got hit with a $77 million fine because customers chose to buy fuel inefficient vehicles.
The march toward 50 mpg CAFE ratings is gelding the entire industry. The projections that led to those decisions were way wrong and have not materialized. The current administration is in the process of rolling back the advances in fuel economy mandates, but is getting pushback from California/CARB, etc. Europe is finding itself in a similar bind and their adoption rate of electric vehicles is even slower than here in the U.S. which, after 20 years of availability, have never achieved so much as 4% of new car sales.
There are a lot of unwarranted and unnecessary headwinds hurting the entire industry, not the least of which are indecision and uncertainty.